Baha'i
Buddhist worldview traditions
Christian worldview traditions
Contextualising the diversity of worldviews
Hindu worldview traditions
Humanist worldview traditions
Jain
Jehovah's Witnesses
Jewish worldview traditions
Muslim worldview traditions
Pagan
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Research

The religious population of the world, 2060

Conrad Hackett & Marcin Stonawski

Research Summary

The numbers of religious believers in the world will grow over the next half-century, according to demographic analyses and predictions. Absolute growth in their numbers might be less surprising than relative growth (i.e. they will be in an increased majority over non-religious people). Different parts of the world will be differently affected.

Researchers

Conrad Hackett & Marcin Stonawski

Research Institution

Pew Research Center, Washington DC

What is this about?

The research is about how numbers of people belonging to different religions, or not affiliated to a religion, are predicted to grow or otherwise from 2015 to 2060; and how the religious or worldview population composition of different parts of the world will be affected.

What was done?

The methodology is to begin with 2015 populations and then to consider the median ages and fertility rates of different religious or non-affiliated groups. These are the bases of predictions for future increases or decreases. For example, because the median age of Muslims is low (24) and the fertility rate high (average 2.9 children per woman), the Muslim population is predicted to increase. Factors such as conversion (‘switching rates’) are also built in to the predictions.

Main findings and outputs

The report is large and comprehensive, and readers are encouraged to continue to it (link below). However, here are selected headlines:

  • 2015 world population= 7,284,640,000 2060 world population= 9,615,760,000
  • 2015 Christian population= 2, 276,250,000 (31.2%) 2060 Christian population= 3,054,460,000 (31.8%)
  • 2015 Muslim population= 1,752, 620,000 (24.1%) 2060 Muslim population= 2,987,390,000 (31.1%)
  • 2015 unaffiliated population= 1,165,020,000 (16%) 2060 unaffiliated population= 1,202,300 (12.5%)
  • 2015 Hindu population= 1,099,110,000 (15.1%) 2060 Hindu population= 1,392,900 000 (14.5%)
  • 2015 Buddhist population= 499,380,000 (6.9%) 2060 Buddhist population= 461,980, 000 (4.8%)
  • 2015 Jewish population= 14,270, 000 (0.2%) 2060 Jewish population= 16, 370,000 (0.2%)

Regional trends
The religiously unaffiliated population is heavily concentrated in places with ageing populations and relatively low fertility, such as China, Japan, Europe and North America. By contrast, religions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. Much of the worldwide growth of Islam and Christianity is expected to take place in sub-Saharan Africa.

Relevance to RE

RE teachers should find useful background and teaching material here. The prediction, based on evidence, that religion’s presence in the world will increase over the next half-century underlines the need for good RE. The research should be useful in advocacy for the subject at various levels including individual school and national policy.

Generalisability and potential limitations

The research is partly predictive, but done scientifically by an internationally respected body. The findings are already generalisations and do not cover diversity within religions or the ‘non-affiliated’.

Find out more

The report The Changing Global Religious Landscape was first published online in April 2017. It can be freely accessed at http://www.pewforum.org/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/

 

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